Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 219.134153 267.662227 328.262029 410.966022 523.274939 6.741400e+02 8.987932e+02
2025-05-25 158.950628 211.800877 286.292185 403.474562 592.450303 9.042190e+02 1.505900e+03
2025-06-01 125.101791 176.455325 254.972470 391.605697 642.651720 1.133199e+03 2.335173e+03
2025-06-08 103.302833 151.839557 230.649872 378.871011 681.553649 1.366467e+03 3.477628e+03
2025-06-15 95.619592 146.839356 235.597983 417.741069 839.056602 1.987084e+03 6.900396e+03
2025-06-22 85.078206 134.674464 224.647281 421.381795 921.832119 2.509928e+03 1.176844e+04
2025-06-29 77.999961 127.068779 220.086299 436.634109 1044.086396 3.323936e+03 2.307424e+04
2025-07-06 70.384237 117.127973 208.706072 432.414587 1110.844956 4.048277e+03 4.199042e+04
2025-07-13 67.917718 116.375763 215.762889 475.803955 1361.353302 6.186672e+03 1.485007e+05
2025-07-20 65.198842 114.631471 220.251442 514.607533 1635.667126 9.442642e+03 8.931787e+05
2025-07-27 62.103090 111.611252 221.191642 544.137362 1908.446293 1.413831e+04 2.513211e+07
2025-08-03 58.652092 107.331864 218.289453 561.226421 2149.614248 2.041150e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 54.711301 101.710738 211.641341 566.219697 2355.520884 2.897031e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 50.513526 95.022708 201.178753 554.985394 2465.981325 3.808345e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 46.561511 88.421598 189.841238 537.027054 2522.261581 4.801150e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 43.038648 82.399497 179.067638 517.810239 2555.972732 5.961304e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 42.609002 83.412795 187.447900 576.754907 3296.489619 1.565075e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 40.441772 80.078543 183.115161 582.315912 3612.443987 2.819665e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 38.971734 78.244213 182.781701 605.683487 4179.773598 7.370839e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 36.840243 74.568229 176.408851 599.207348 4419.152244 1.503568e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 36.616619 75.584131 184.413111 666.216282 5848.029326 4.365678e+07 NaN
2025-10-12 36.121358 75.852706 190.206357 726.899108 7569.002961 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 35.304939 75.194038 192.912059 773.539436 9415.229428 NaN NaN